One of the things I’ve been wracking my brain with this week is the political outlook for the US in the 2010s. Measuring change is difficult, because everyone has a different perception of the status quo and the past. Some people think 2010 is radically different from 2000; others less so.

Nonetheless, it is still possible to identify several political trends, some already under way, which will continue in the 2010s:

• Inequality will remain high. The US gini coefficient for families has risen sharply since Ronald Reagan became president, and although it appears to be stabilising at 0.44, it is still high. Although Americans seem more tolerant of inequality than many European nations, that doesn’t mean that inequality will not become a political issue.

• The US will have to reduce its budget deficit and debt burden. Much of the cuts will need to occur at state level, since several states – e.g. California, New Jersey – have become virtually bankrupt.

• Neither the Democrats nor Republicans will have a lock on the presidency for the next 20 years. Although the American electorate is roughly evenly divided, there are sufficient swing voters to prevent one-party dominance. Meanwhile, if neither the Democrats nor Republicans prove effective, I would not be surprised to see another push for a third-party presidential candidate in 2012 or 2016.

• The south and west will continue to rise in importance due to demographics. The 2010 Census is expected to result in more Congressional seats being allocated to southern and western states, at the expense of northern and eastern states. However, the rise of the South will not necessarily boost the Republicans (who traditionally do well there), because northern and Latino immigrants will ‘Democratise’ the region.

• Hispanics will continue to rise in importance, economically, politically, and socially, as they become an ever larger share of the US population. Some states are already seeing non-Hispanic whites shrink to minority status, even where they are still a plurality. By the end of the decade, I would expect to see a Hispanic candidate for president or vice-president.

• Regionalism could gain further momentum, as western states forge closer ties with Asia, southern states trade and invest more with Mexico and Latin America, and northern states become integrated with Canada.

Wild Cards: Mexican Drugs, Terrorism, Afghanistan

There are three major wild cards:

• If Mexico’s drug wars worsen and start spilling over into the US on a significant scale, border security will become a much more pressing issue, and could lead to greater American military involvement south of the border.

• A new mass-casualty terror attack – or series of terror attacks – in the US would place homeland security at the top of the political agenda, potentially draining political capital away from economic reforms (e.g. the deficit, healthcare).

• A US military defeat in Afghanistan – or perceptions thereof – could lead to a new period of Jimmy Carter-esque ‘national malaise’ similar to what followed the fall of South Vietnam in 1975. This would reinforce perceptions of US decline at a time when China and India will probably still be rising. However, the scene would then be set for an American resurgence under a Reagan-esque figure.

Beyond 2020

Beyond our decade, many of the above trends will continue, but the bigger questions will be:

• The character/identity of the US: Whether America will continue to be an ‘Anglo-Saxon’ (culturally as well as ethnically) nation as Hispanics and Asians become numerically stronger (although there is also a case that the Hispanisation is somewhat exaggerated).

• Climate change: Rising populations in the western and southern states may not be sustainable if climate change leads to greater aridity and water shortages. The northern states could experience a revival if they prove more environmentally sustainable.

• Superpower status: Although I still see the US as the world’s sole superpower in the 2020s, this will increasingly be challenged by China and India, and possibly a few others. The US may find it difficult to adjust to its decreasing (in relative terms) power – although I caution against believing that the US is in decline.