I’ve just come back from visiting Syria. The country is certainly on the tourist map these days judging by the busloads of European visitors. And economically, Syria has strong prospects: BMI is forecasting real GDP growth in the 3.5-5.0% range over the coming five years. Politically, however, I don’t see much prospect of change in… [Read more]
Moldova is in the midst of yet another political crisis. By this, I actually mean that the country has entered a new phase of a pre-existing crisis – a crisis that yields valuable lessons on the broader significance of political institutions to a country’s risk profile. Fortunately, this new scene in the ongoing drama has… [Read more]
One of the main reasons why I am bearish towards Japan is its chronically dysfunctional political system. Whoever replaces Yasuo Fukuda will be Japan’s 12th prime minister since 1990, and the sixth since 2000. This frequent change of leadership has been described as ‘revolving door prime ministers’, but unfortunately, ‘Superman’ is unlikely to emerge. Although… [Read more]