In Business Monitor Online today, we discuss two important weekend events. It was an unlucky Friday the 13th for France, which lost its AAA credit rating from Standard and Poor’s. Among other things, the downgrade is likely to be prompt a reassessment by investors and the electorate of the Franco-German relationship in ongoing eurozone rescue… [Read more]
Argentina’s future economic performance is highly dependent on the outcome of the October 23 Presidential election. With an opposition victory looking increasingly unlikely, my colleagues and I do not expect a dramatic about-turn, with President Cristina Fernández set to remain in charge. Although Argentina still has massive economic potential, significant risks exist. Why Is Argentina… [Read more]
The apparent victory of centre-left candidate Ollanta Humala in the Peruvian president election could pose significant risks to the mining sector. Having said that, we believe these fears are to an extent overblown. 1: As Humala does not possess a majority in Congress, he will have to form a coalition or gain support from one… [Read more]
Left-wing populist candidate Ollanta Humala has taken the lead in the first round of Peru’s presidential elections held on April 10, according to data from the electoral commission and independent pollsters. Should Humala eventually emerge victorious over the centre-right candidate, most probably Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former president Alberto), in the run-off in June, we… [Read more]
Afghanistan has featured prominently in the Western media of late, mainly because of a sharp increase in Western troop deaths. But presidential elections to be held on August 20 also merit attention. Having just written an extensive report on Afghanistan for Business Monitor Online, I thought I’d share some of my thoughts. If you are… [Read more]
Bloody clashes between Iranian security forces and protestors contesting last Friday’s election results have seen the largest public gathering in Iran since the Islamic Revolution 30 years ago. Liz Martins from Business Monitor International discusses the implications of a possible recount of the vote.
Although there is no smoking gun at this stage, several indications have led many Iranians to suspect that last Friday’s presidential election was rigged. While I expect the post-election unrest to die down over the coming days and weeks, public perceptions of electoral fraud could undermine the regime’s legitimacy over the longer term. Indeed, the… [Read more]
