While my colleagues at Business Monitor believe developed-state equity markets will outperform EM equities in 2011, they still believe it is still too early to call the end of the EM equity rally, and I tend to agree with them. True, many Latin American bourses look expensive, and this contrasts starkly to developed states, where… [Read more]
The Chilean peso (CLP) has long been my favourite Latin American currency, primarily because of the perceived lack of intervention risk from the Banco Central de Chile (BCC). Indeed, central bank President José de Gregorio has reiterated on numerous occasions his beliefs that: a) currency intervention is costly and, on occasion, ineffective, and b) the… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we examine the disconnect in the US between positive microeconomic signals coming out of second quarter corporate earnings reports and consistently dismal macroeconomic data releases. BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie is joined by Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper to discuss what accounts for this… [Read more]
Mexico has attracted more M&A activity in 2010 than any other EM economy with the exception of China, knocking the other regional heavyweight Brazil into third place. With the Mexican peso outperforming most other EM FX majors over the past few months, the benchmark IPC equity index continuing to push record highs, and the country’s… [Read more]
This morning’s global equity market sell-off could have had something to do with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)’s decision to raise the reserve requirement ratio from 15.5% to 16.0% for large domestic banks and from 13.5% to 14.0% for small banks from January 18. This followed two hikes in central bank bill rates, and… [Read more]
One stock market that has really underperformed global equity markets in recent months is Japan’s Nikkei index. While other developed markets have rallied by over 50.0% since the March lows, and some EMs by around 200%, the Nikkei has only recovered by around 35.0%. The price action has turned lower and is starting to form… [Read more]
‘A tale of two Europes’ seems to be the best way to describe the slew of Q2 GDP releases that came out in the second week of August. On the upside, Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, surprised most analysts by surging out of recession and posting 0.3% q-o-q growth. This helped to… [Read more]
