Posts Tagged ‘recession’
Mon Jul 18, 2011 16:07 GMT |
The EU-wide bank stress test results released on July 15 offered little reprieve for financial markets as concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continue to dominate. At the heart of the stress test scenario is the ‘adverse scenario’, in which the euro-area economy contracts 0.5% in 2011 and equity markets fall 15%, while banks… [Read more]

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Tags: bailout, banking sector, Banks, Cajas, Default, EFSF, ESM, EU, euro, Eurozone, fiscal union, Greece, ireland, Italy, recession, Spain, Stress Test, Swiss franc
Posted in: Currencies, Eurozone, Financials, General, Podcast
Mon Mar 7, 2011 17:07 GMT |
On this week’s Podcast, BMI’s Spain analyst Chris Graham answers all the key questions concerning the stability and outlook for the Spanish economy. These include: Why is Spain so important for the European outlook? What are the risks of a Spanish banking sector collapse? What has been done to support the banking sector? To what… [Read more]

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Tags: banking sector, financial crisis, housing market, Podcast, recession, Spain, treasury
Posted in: Eurozone, Financials, General, Podcast, Political Risk
Fri Jul 16, 2010 13:53 GMT |
Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the… [Read more]

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Tags: 2s10s, China, demand, Double Dip, downturn, Equities, Fed, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income, mid-term elections, monetary policy, recession, recovery, treasuries, United States, US dollar
Posted in: Currencies, Equities, Eurozone, Financials, General, Geopolitics, Podcast, Political Risk, US
Wed Jun 2, 2010 16:19 GMT |
One of the most underestimated risks facing the global economy is an outright recession in China. Almost nobody in the world of economics or finance believes that it is possible, let alone likely. However, is it really that unlikely? The CLSA purchasing managers index has already topped out in April 2010, so while China’s economy… [Read more]
Tags: Beijing, China, construction boom, Double Dip, economic downturn, housing prices, monetary tightening, PMI, Property Bubble, recession, Shanghai
Posted in: Asia, China, General
Thu Apr 15, 2010 16:36 GMT |
The bounce is on in the United States, with real GDP growth forecast to surge to 2.8% in 2010. And yet, the spike in headline growth will not translate into much better job conditions nor re-inflation of prices in the crucial real estate market. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper discusses… [Read more]

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Tags: Double Dip, fiscal, government consumption, private consumption, recession, recovery, unemployment, US
Posted in: Equities, General, Inflation/Deflation, Podcast, US
Tue Nov 10, 2009 16:59 GMT |
Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia. According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark the third… [Read more]
Tags: Debt, depression, devaluation, forecast, GDP, Lat, Latvia, recession, unemployment
Posted in: Emerging Europe, General
Thu Oct 22, 2009 15:45 GMT |
The release of Q3 real GDP data in China reaffirms Business Monitor’s view that the Chinese economy is already in the midst of a very strong recovery. However, Stuart Allsopp from BMI’s Asia team cautions that this does not constitute an end to the country’s economic woes and highlights that deep structural imbalances persist.

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Tags: Asia, Banking, China, Commodities, Economy, external demand, final consumption, Fiscal Stimulus, fixed investment, GDP, monetary policy, NPLs, overcapacity, recession, recovery
Posted in: Asia, China, Commodities, General, Inflation/Deflation, Podcast