Posts Tagged ‘recession’
Fri Jul 16, 2010 13:53 BST |
Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the [Read more...]

Standard Podcast [15:16m]
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Tags: 2s10s, China, demand, Double Dip, downturn, Equities, Fed, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income, mid-term elections, monetary policy, recession, recovery, treasuries, United States, US dollar
Posted in: Currencies, Equities, Eurozone, Financials, General, Geopolitics, Podcast, Political Risk, US
Wed Jun 2, 2010 16:19 BST |
One of the most underestimated risks facing the global economy is an outright recession in China. Almost nobody in the world of economics or finance believes that it is possible, let alone likely. However, is it really that unlikely? The CLSA purchasing managers index has already topped out in April 2010, so while China’s economy [Read more...]
Tags: Beijing, China, construction boom, Double Dip, economic downturn, housing prices, monetary tightening, PMI, Property Bubble, recession, Shanghai
Posted in: Asia, China, General
Thu Apr 15, 2010 16:36 BST |
The bounce is on in the United States, with real GDP growth forecast to surge to 2.8% in 2010. And yet, the spike in headline growth will not translate into much better job conditions nor re-inflation of prices in the crucial real estate market. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper discusses [Read more...]

Standard Podcast [13:14m]
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Tags: Double Dip, fiscal, government consumption, private consumption, recession, recovery, unemployment, US
Posted in: Equities, General, Inflation/Deflation, Podcast, US
Tue Nov 10, 2009 16:59 GMT |
Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia.
According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark [Read more...]
Tags: Debt, depression, devaluation, forecast, GDP, Lat, Latvia, recession, unemployment
Posted in: Emerging Europe, General
Thu Oct 22, 2009 15:45 BST |
The release of Q3 real GDP data in China reaffirms Business Monitor’s view that the Chinese economy is already in the midst of a very strong recovery. However, Stuart Allsopp from BMI’s Asia team cautions that this does not constitute an end to the country’s economic woes and highlights that deep structural imbalances persist.

Standard Podcast [6:57m]
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Tags: Asia, Banking, China, Commodities, Economy, external demand, final consumption, Fiscal Stimulus, fixed investment, GDP, monetary policy, NPLs, overcapacity, recession, recovery
Posted in: Asia, China, Commodities, General, Inflation/Deflation, Podcast
Thu Oct 15, 2009 16:08 BST |
Upon her return from the United Arab Emirates, we ask Liz Martins from the Middle East desk at BMI to share some of her views on the country and its prospects of weathering the macroeconomic storm hitting the region.

Standard Podcast [12:46m]
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Tags: Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, GCC, Gulf, Kuwait, Middle East, monetary union, Qatar, Real Estate, recession, Saudi Arabia, UAE
Posted in: Currencies, General, Geopolitics, Middle East, Podcast
Thu Sep 10, 2009 16:45 BST |
With the US economy emerging out of recession, a big question will be what happens to the labour market. The US continues to record job losses every month, despite signs that real GDP is returning to positive growth, and while unemployment tends to be a lagging indicator, BMI’s Tim Cooper notes that underlying structural shifts [Read more...]

Standard Podcast [15:11m]
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Tags: employment, GDP, income, job creation, jobless data, labour market, lost decade, recession, U-6, unemployment, US
Posted in: General, Inflation/Deflation, Podcast, US