The EU-wide bank stress test results released on July 15 offered little reprieve for financial markets as concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continue to dominate. At the heart of the stress test scenario is the ‘adverse scenario’, in which the euro-area economy contracts 0.5% in 2011 and equity markets fall 15%, while banks… [Read more]
On this week’s Podcast, BMI’s Spain analyst Chris Graham answers all the key questions concerning the stability and outlook for the Spanish economy. These include: Why is Spain so important for the European outlook? What are the risks of a Spanish banking sector collapse? What has been done to support the banking sector? To what… [Read more]
Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the… [Read more]
One of the most underestimated risks facing the global economy is an outright recession in China. Almost nobody in the world of economics or finance believes that it is possible, let alone likely. However, is it really that unlikely? The CLSA purchasing managers index has already topped out in April 2010, so while China’s economy… [Read more]
The bounce is on in the United States, with real GDP growth forecast to surge to 2.8% in 2010. And yet, the spike in headline growth will not translate into much better job conditions nor re-inflation of prices in the crucial real estate market. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper discusses… [Read more]
Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia. According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark the third… [Read more]
The release of Q3 real GDP data in China reaffirms Business Monitor’s view that the Chinese economy is already in the midst of a very strong recovery. However, Stuart Allsopp from BMI’s Asia team cautions that this does not constitute an end to the country’s economic woes and highlights that deep structural imbalances persist.
