Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia. According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark the third… [Read more]
The release of Q3 real GDP data in China reaffirms Business Monitor’s view that the Chinese economy is already in the midst of a very strong recovery. However, Stuart Allsopp from BMI’s Asia team cautions that this does not constitute an end to the country’s economic woes and highlights that deep structural imbalances persist.
Upon her return from the United Arab Emirates, we ask Liz Martins from the Middle East desk at BMI to share some of her views on the country and its prospects of weathering the macroeconomic storm hitting the region.
With the US economy emerging out of recession, a big question will be what happens to the labour market. The US continues to record job losses every month, despite signs that real GDP is returning to positive growth, and while unemployment tends to be a lagging indicator, BMI’s Tim Cooper notes that underlying structural shifts… [Read more]
BMI’s Justin Patrie cautions against premature excitement following the release of Q2 GDP data for several CEE and eurozone economies. Nevertheless, differentiation will remain key and the usual suspects (i.e. Turkey and Poland) continue to stand out as the ideal relative value play.
‘A tale of two Europes’ seems to be the best way to describe the slew of Q2 GDP releases that came out in the second week of August. On the upside, Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, surprised most analysts by surging out of recession and posting 0.3% q-o-q growth. This helped to… [Read more]
Despite the whopping 13.8% y-o-y real GDP contraction in Q109, I have stuck to my view that Turkey is among the best macro plays in emerging Europe. This strategic view has been formed out of three key premises: 1. The Turkish banking sector is among the most stable in Europe with among the highest growth… [Read more]
