Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast [Read more...]

Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the [Read more...]

 

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The development of the Airbus A380F air freighter (F denoting freighter) has been put on the back burner, according to Tom Enders, the company’s CEO. BMI’s freight transportation team considers this to be a prudent move, for although the global air freight industry is picking up after its decline in 2009, a slow and steady [Read more...]

My colleagues in the Global Strategy team at Business Monitor ran this chart last week, highlighting the sharp differential between German export growth to emerging markets and the developed world. Between 1999 and 2008 the proportion of German exports to emerging markets rose almost 10pps to 29.5% (according to IMF data). Over the same period, [Read more...]

The bounce is on in the United States, with real GDP growth forecast to surge to 2.8% in 2010. And yet, the spike in headline growth will not translate into much better job conditions nor re-inflation of prices in the crucial real estate market. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper discusses [Read more...]

 

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The release of Q3 real GDP data in China reaffirms Business Monitor’s view that the Chinese economy is already in the midst of a very strong recovery. However, Stuart Allsopp from BMI’s Asia team cautions that this does not constitute an end to the country’s economic woes and highlights that deep structural imbalances persist.

 

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Asia’s economies are already in recovery mode, but there are still many uncertainties ahead. In a ‘Webinar’ held with the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) in Singapore, BMI analysts Yoel Sano and Eugene Leow discuss the following questions:

• Which economies will be outperformers in 2009 and 2010, and why?

• Are Asian economies decoupling from the US?

• Can Asia [Read more...]