As the US gears up for general elections in 2012, there is a widespread perception that the country’s economic weakness since 2008, the rise of China, the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, have all eroded American global hegemony. Although the US’ ability and… [Read more]

Despite America’s woes, including Monday’s S&P outlook revision and the ongoing stalemate in Afghanistan, I believe that Barack Obama will win re-election in 2012. There are two main reasons: Firstly, one-term presidents are increasingly an aberration. The last two single-term presidents, George H.W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter, presided over recessions. By 2012, the US economy… [Read more]

Following predictable Republican gains in Tuesday’s US mid-term elections, there will be a temptation to proclaim President Barack Obama a lame duck. In addition, the 2012 presidential election campaign has all but begun, with speculation already mounting as to whom the Republicans will nominate to challenge Obama. Despite this, I caution against writing off Obama… [Read more]

One of the things I’ve been wracking my brain with this week is the political outlook for the US in the 2010s. Measuring change is difficult, because everyone has a different perception of the status quo and the past. Some people think 2010 is radically different from 2000; others less so. Nonetheless, it is still… [Read more]

Barack Obama’s resounding victory over John McCain begs the question, what next for the US Republican party? Can they rebuild themselves in time to recapture the White House in 2012 (or Congress in the 2010 mid-term elections)? What will they have to do? Who will spearhead them next time round? A key problem for the… [Read more]