Business Monitor’s bullish stance on a host of emerging market (EM) currencies in recent quarters reflects one of our core macroeconomic assumptions, namely that unprecedented quantitative easing and loose fiscal policy measures in the US in 2009 would ultimately foster significant depreciatory forces for the US dollar. While this may not be visible in the… [Read more]
In this week’s podcast Mark Schaltuper (Head of Latin America Analysis) and Terry Alexander (Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets) discuss the return of risk appetite to global markets. Assessing recent moves and a stronger-than-expected bounce in developed markets’ equities, we explore potential opportunities and the implications for emerging markets.
Risk Watchdog has always had a keen interest in relative value plays. One such view has been the multi-year compression in the Dow-Gold ratio (that is the Dow Jones divided by the price of spot Gold). Back in April 2006, I thought that gold would continue outperforming the Dow Jones, a trend that had started… [Read more]
BMI Global Economist, Tim Cooper, shares his views on what the latest slowdown in job losses means for the US economy and financial markets.
With global equity markets pushing through key technical levels and international investor confidence rising, certain sub-Saharan African (SSA) currencies have caught my eye. Aside from tentative improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals, many currencies offer high interest rates, which are likely to attract capital inflows on the back of increasing global risk appetite. Perhaps more importantly, several… [Read more]
There is no denying: the Federal Reserve‘s endeavours to re-inflate the US economy are being well received by global financial markets. In fact, a number of key resistance levels have been breached by equity indices and currencies that have in recent times been viewed as a barometer of global risk appetite. Is this a sucker’s… [Read more]
