One barely noticed (there was no mention even on Reuters) but potentially significant event in Central and Eastern Europe over the Christmas period was the declaration of independence by the Ruthenians from Ukraine. Lest you wonder who the Ruthenians are, they are an eastern Slavic ethnic group, one of a handful of peoples in Europe [Read more...]

As 2008 comes to a close, the much-hyped BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economies are looking increasingly troubled. The only question is: which will fare best? (In the 2009-10 timeframe, not by 2050.)

Perhaps ‘best’ is the wrong term. Chances are, for example, that China and India will grow faster than Brazil, but not without experiencing [Read more...]

If you think emerging Europe currencies have run their course to the downside, take another look at the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). This being the only European sub-region dominated by dollar pegs, monetary authorities for the most part have only recently succumbed to mounting fundamental pressures. While the Ukrainian hryvnia, Russian rouble and Georgian [Read more...]

Last Saturday was a sad day for world trade, with Somali pirates seizing a Saudi-owned tanker carrying US$100 million worth of oil. The Sirius Star was hijacked 450 miles off the coast of Kenya, becoming the largest vessel ever hijacked.

If you thought that piracy was the stuff of old swashbuckling tales, think again. Indeed, [Read more...]

Latvia is the newest victim of the credit crunch. This is not official. No formal application has been made for an IMF bail-out package, nor has it made the front pages of any major newspaper of record on the continent. That said, with the economy contracting by 4.2% in the third quarter (down from 10.1% [Read more...]

On the back of the unexpectedly hawkish ‘State of the Nation’ address from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on October 5, Moscow has been rife with rumours. There has been wildly divergent speculation on the significance of the political reform proposals Medvedev spoke of, especially a plan to extend the presidential term from four to six [Read more...]

Over the past several months, there has been a clear disconnect between credit default swap (CDS) markets and sovereign ratings in the emerging Europe region. While CDS spreads across the board have spiked to record highs, in some cases beyond 1,000 basis points (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Latvia), the downgrades from the ratings agencies have been [Read more...]