On this week’s podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie talks to Jean-Paul Pigat about the ongoing political crisis in the Middle East. The discussion centres on the tactical and strategic implications for regional/global markets and macro. Justin and Jean-Paul also discuss potential political scenarios in Saudi Arabia and Iran as… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Head of Middle East and North Africa Analysis, Jean-Paul Pigat, has just returned from a trip to the region, where he met top-level policymakers and investors. Earlier today, he spoke to the BBC’s World Business Report and discussed the implications of the crisis on investment into the region. Meanwhile, BMI will… [Read more]
Brent crude made an upward surge on February 24, hitting a new post-financial crisis high of US$119.79/bbl, as Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi lost control of vast swathes of oil-producing Libya to pro-democracy protesters. However, my colleagues and I are not convinced that oil will continue to sky-rocket and hit new all-time highs. Instead we see consolidation… [Read more]
With Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s position looking increasingly untenable, and Bahrain rocked by unrest, so soon after popular protests toppled the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been shaken like never before. Crucially, the uprisings have also overthrown the conventional wisdom. Until recently, it was generally assumed… [Read more]
Bahrain is the only Gulf Arab state to have witnessed large-scale public unrest since popular uprisings toppled the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents in recent weeks. As of Friday, 18 February, the Kingdom was bracing for more protests following the security forces’ dispersal of demonstrators in the capital Manama’s Pearl Square the previous day. The Bahraini… [Read more]
Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]
Following a rally in Middle Eastern equity markets, driven by hikes in oil prices and the Dubai World’s debt restructuring, several bourses are up against key technical resistance. With momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) looking firmly overbought, I believe that a near-term correction is increasingly likely in Dubai, Saudi and Qatari… [Read more]
