Japan and Italy have quite a bit in common. Both have histories stretching back 2,700 years. More recently, both are underperforming economies that have accumulated colossal debt burdens which rapidly ageing (and in Japan’s case, already shrinking) populations will struggle to pay off. In addition, both countries have weak political systems characterised by dozens of… [Read more]

Regular readers of this blog will know that my colleagues and I have stated recently that a break-up of the eurozone is a possible outcome of the current crisis. In a special feature published on Business Monitor Online this week, we assess the potential scenarios. Essentially, there are five basic types of break-ups we can… [Read more]

Syrian President Bashar Assad is facing the biggest challenge to his 11-year rule, with mass protests taking place across the country. The government has cracked down violently, but this has failed to restore stability. My colleagues and I now see a growing possibility that the Assad regime will eventually collapse under the strain, possibly resulting… [Read more]

It is only mid-March, and already 2011 has brought two shocks to the global economy. The first was the wave of political unrest that swept across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from January onwards, toppling the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents and plunging Libya into civil war. The second was of course the devastating… [Read more]

One of the most oft-repeated axioms of Asian geopolitics is that there won’t be a new war on the Korean Peninsula because neither North and South Korea nor their principal backers (China and the US) want it to happen. The South and the US will not attack the North because that would lead to a… [Read more]

Monday’s twin bombings in the Moscow Metro demonstrate that the war in the North Caucasus is neither over nor just a conflict in a peripheral part of Russia. The Moscow attacks came just four months after the Moscow-St Petersburg railway was bombed, showing that Islamist terrorists are capable of carrying out their threats to take… [Read more]

Thursday marks the 60th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, and is an opportune time to reflect on where China is going. There is a widespread belief that China is on course for global domination, and this is best captured in the title of a recent book, When China Rules The… [Read more]