Early returns from Iraq’s national elections suggest that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance is on track to secure the highest number of seats of any party in the next parliament, and that he himself is well placed to retain his post. If Maliki does stay on in his role, this should ensure broad policy continuity over the next four years. Specifically, Baghdad would remain highly welcoming to foreign investment, and the possibility that the deals which the government has signed with a number of foreign oil companies over the past several months could be annulled by the next government would recede. Given the very good terms that Baghdad has secured in these deals, and given the pressing need for Iraq to raise oil output levels as quickly as possible, I have never been overly concerned that the agreements will be materially altered by the next government. If Maliki is returned to office, this would further strengthen my view.

Boost For Sunni-Shi’a Reconciliation

Perhaps most significantly as far as long-term stability is concerned is the good showing by the Iraqi National Movement (INM), a secular cross-sectarian Shi’a-Sunni bloc. The INM could be heading for around 25% of the seats in the next government, potentially putting it in second place behind State of Law, which looks like winning around 30% of total seats. The next governing coalition could be a tie up between State of Law and the INM. This outcome could speed up the process of Shi’a-Sunni reconciliation, reducing the risk of Iraq descending into chaos once US troops finally withdraw.

Sunni disenfranchisement within Iraq’s post-Saddam democratic system has been a key driver of the extreme sectarian violence of the recent past. This election has seen Sunni Iraqis turn out in droves – in 2005’s election they largely boycotted the polls – and if this strong participation were to be rewarded with the INM’s involvement in a prospective governing coalition, this would bring Sunni politicians into government and perhaps mean that this sectarian community at last began to feel that it was exerting some influence on the future direction of the country.

Decline Of Religious Parties

The strong showing of State of Law and the INM implies that Iraqis are increasingly in favour of separating religion from politics. State of Law may have religious roots, but Maliki has taken it in a nationalist direction over recent years; the INM is avowedly secular. The success of these parties has come at the expense of overtly religious ones, particularly the National Iraqi Alliance (NIA), a religious bloc with strong links to Iran. The NIA could well pick up 20-25% of the seats in the next parliament, but last time around, its parent coalition won nearly 47% of seats. Therefore, I believe that concerns over Tehran exerting undue influence in Iraq will begin to fade.

Key Risks

Despite my optimism, I do acknowledge that the post-election horse trading could leave certain parties highly dissatisfied. First, Maliki could reject the INM as a coalition partner, potentially reigniting the Sunni insurgency and resulting in an upsurge in sectarian violence. Secondly, a government that was effectively secular would leave Islamists, be they Shi’a or Sunni, shut out from power. Given that a considerable proportion of Iraqis still desire a government based on religious principles, such a scenario could provoke religious-secular animosity and potentially lead to instability.