Commodity prices have dramatically fallen out of their multi-year uptrends in recent months, as the global macroeconomic environment has deteriorated and risk aversion swept through markets. This week, Edward Coughlan, BMI’s Head of Mining Analysis is joined by John Davies, Head of Commodities Analysis, to discuss the outlook for commodity prices in 2012.
Coffee is shaping up to post a strong monthly close which bolsters my medium-term bullish view. Moreover, while not my core scenario, I would not rule out a significant spike in prices over the coming months, as has happened in the past. My colleagues at Business Monitor Online recently alluded to this potential in late… [Read more]
This week Mark Schaltuper is joined by Cedric Chehab, Head of Commodities Research at BMI, to discuss the outlook for the commodity complex. With macroeconomic headwinds in the making, how will cyclical commodities perform relative to grains and softs, and what are the risks of gold forming a bubble?
I expect soft commodity markets to continue trading in a volatile fashion over the coming weeks driven chiefly by their own specific supply and demand dynamics, rather than wider macro-developments. My key thoughts are as follows: The cocoa market will likely to remain volatile and I do not rule out continued gains in the coming… [Read more]
Sugar has already been the star performer among agricultural commodities in 2009, but Risk Watchdog believes that the year-long ascent in prices could have further to run. Sugar began the year trading around USc14.00/lb region, but by September, had rallied all the way to USc26.00/lb. Since the summer, prices have edged lower as investors hesitated… [Read more]
BMI chief commodity analyst Cedric Chehab discusses his outlook on soft commodities, and how the techincal and fundamental pictures align for a bullish outlook on sugar.
