I am modestly bullish grains in 2011, although I do not foresee gains to the extent seen in 2010. The S&PGS grains index rallied roughly 50% over H210 following a slew of disappointing harvests in the northern hemisphere. In particular, downgrades to Russian wheat and US corn production were the key drivers over recent months…. [Read more]

I expect soft commodity markets to continue trading in a volatile fashion over the coming weeks driven chiefly by their own specific supply and demand dynamics, rather than wider macro-developments. My key thoughts are as follows: The cocoa market will likely to remain volatile and I do not rule out continued gains in the coming… [Read more]

Regular readers will know that I have held a cautiously bearish view with regard to London cocoa since early-March. Indeed, at the time, I highlighted that a combination of factors could see cocoa prices move to multi-year trendline support around the GBP1,850/tonne from a level of about GBP2,100/tonne, implying a potential correction of about 15-20%…. [Read more]

Sugar prices have steadily weakened since they peaked at USc30.40/lb in early February, and are currently trading at USc24.60/lb. I think the technical picture is deteriorating, and this combined with expectations of a loosening market in 2011 suggests that the rally I initially highlighted in August 2009, may be coming to an end. The monthly,… [Read more]