In line with my view of a renewed bounce in the US dollar (which is playing out really nicely, by the way), I believe that the recent gains of some sub-Saharan African currencies could be rather short-lived. Indeed, over at businessmonitor.com, I have been highlighting the potential for a rally in the Kenyan shilling, which [Read more...]

As pointed out last week, I believe that many sub-Saharan African countries will continue to struggle with double-digit inflation figures over the course of 2009, mainly on the back of currency depreciation, relatively robust real GDP growth and weak monetary policy transmission mechanisms. I should have mentioned though that South Africa is likely to represent [Read more...]

Having spent a week in South Africa, it was very refreshing to escape the European economic doom and gloom and visit a country with stunning natural beauty and fantastic culinary experiences. With the British pound having appreciated by more than 10.4% against the rand year-to-date (ytd), South Africa’s world famous beef steaks tasted even juicier. [Read more...]

Having depreciated by more than 38% against the US dollar year-to-date, the South African rand remains one of the worst-performing, major EM currencies. Even the Brazilian real and the Turkish lira, down by 25% and 31% respectively, cannot match the rand’s disastrous performance. While strengthening from a six-and-a-half-year low of ZAR11.8550/US$ on October 22, the [Read more...]

Taking a closer look at a long-dated chart of the Johannesburg All-Share Index (JALSH), I can only reiterate my long-held, bearish outlook. Technicals suggest that support at around 24,000 will be absolutely key, and a break below that level could send the index tumbling towards the 18,000 area before we know it.

JALSH Index

As I mentioned [Read more...]

As highlighted before, my bearish view on commodities seems to be playing out nicely. Whether it is Brent crude oil, gold, platinum, or even milk, many commodity prices are currently heading one way only: south. Although some appear a bit oversold on a technical basis and could therefore see a short-term bounce, I believe prices [Read more...]