Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]
The Q211 GDP data released recently by Statistics South Africa has confirmed many of my suspicions about the state of the South African economy. The recovery is losing momentum and moreover, it is uneven with the supply side in the doldrums while the demand side continues to post robust growth. The economy as a whole… [Read more]
Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]
With South Africa’s World Cup well under way, concerns that infrastructure would not be up to scratch have fallen by the wayside. The investment required to prepare South Africa was substantial, running in the billions of dollars, and far exceeding that of previous host nations. The impact of all this has been a tremendous –… [Read more]
BMI’s Africa team cautions that political risk in Sub-Saharan Africa may be on the rise as a full-blown leadership crisis continues to escalate in Nigeria. Alan Cameron and Lisa Lewin provide some insight into an increasingly tense political situation, sharing their views on potential outcomes from the ongoing crisis. The next couple of weeks and… [Read more]
Regular readers of RiskWatchdog will recall that back in July, I flagged up the upside potential of several sub-Saharan African currencies. At that time, the units looked well-positioned to appreciate, thanks to rising global risk appetite, bullish technical patterns and the high yields on offer. I am pleased to say that this view has played… [Read more]
Is there any country in the world that is going to do better in 2009 than in 2008, as measured by real GDP growth? I think so. In fact, I think there’s a country that could have its strongest growth number in a decade, despite the global economic crisis. It’s called Zimbabwe. Granted, the bar… [Read more]
