BMI’s Africa team cautions that political risk in Sub-Saharan Africa may be on the rise as a full-blown leadership crisis continues to escalate in Nigeria. Alan Cameron and Lisa Lewin provide some insight into an increasingly tense political situation, sharing their views on potential outcomes from the ongoing crisis. The next couple of weeks and [Read more...]

 

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Regular readers of RiskWatchdog will recall that back in July, I flagged up the upside potential of several sub-Saharan African currencies. At that time, the units looked well-positioned to appreciate, thanks to rising global risk appetite, bullish technical patterns and the high yields on offer. I am pleased to say that this view has played [Read more...]

Is there any country in the world that is going to do better in 2009 than in 2008, as measured by real GDP growth?
I think so. In fact, I think there’s a country that could have its strongest growth number in a decade, despite the global economic crisis. It’s called Zimbabwe.
Granted, the bar is [Read more...]

In my opinion, South Africa’s 2009 parliamentary elections have been an extraordinary event in many respects. Perhaps most importantly, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) scored a decisive electoral victory, gaining 65.9% of all votes, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Congress of the People (COPE) clearly trailing behind at 16.7% and 7.4%, respectively. [Read more...]

Following years of intense political infighting within the African National Congress (ANC), which resulted in President Thabo Mbeki getting kicked out and led to the historic establishment of the rival Congress of the People (COPE), South Africa’s parliamentary ballot on April 22 will be the closest-watched election in the country since 1994.

In my mind, [Read more...]

Another research trip to South Africa, and yet another set of indications that the country will be affected badly by the global economic crisis. Back in November 2008, I highlighted how the country would be hit hard by the collapse in demand in its export markets, a concern which now represents the key driver of [Read more...]

In line with my view of a renewed bounce in the US dollar (which is playing out really nicely, by the way), I believe that the recent gains of some sub-Saharan African currencies could be rather short-lived. Indeed, over at businessmonitor.com, I have been highlighting the potential for a rally in the Kenyan shilling, which [Read more...]