In Business Monitor Online today, we outline key risks in two economies. In the case of Croatia, we retain our view that the government will seek IMF backing of some sort this year, which will help avert a full-blown crisis in the economy. This is predicated on the increasingly difficult conditions for Croatian financial markets… [Read more]

Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]

An agreement on autos trade between South Korea and the US has ended over three years of wrangling to address an imbalance, which the US believes is heavily stacked in South Korea’s favour. While tariffs and a timeframe for their withdrawal have all been negotiated, it is the non-tariff barriers that have been central to… [Read more]

North Korea’s artillery attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in the hotly disputed maritime border region is a provocative move to say the least. Although North and South have clashed at sea before, most notably resulting in the sinking of the Southern warship Cheonan in March, and have exchanged gunfire at the Demilitarised… [Read more]

One of the most oft-repeated axioms of Asian geopolitics is that there won’t be a new war on the Korean Peninsula because neither North and South Korea nor their principal backers (China and the US) want it to happen. The South and the US will not attack the North because that would lead to a… [Read more]

Offshore gas industry is set for change and with it, the fortunes of the governments, companies and consumers connected to it. The harbinger of change is the floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) vessel, a technology that will allow producers to commercialise offshore gas deposits without pipelines and onshore infrastructure. A ship comes along, taps gas,… [Read more]

One thing which I believe is becoming increasingly likely is a third nuclear test by North Korea. Last May, when North Korea tested its second nuke, I suggested that the entire nuclear dispute had taken on the feeling of one too many a season of ‘24’ – i.e. it had lost the ability to shock… [Read more]