Although Greece is unsurprisingly receiving the lion’s share of investor attention over its fiscal crisis, other southern European countries are also worth watching. BMI has long warned about Italy’s enormous public debt burden – a sentiment echoed on June 17 by ratings agency Moody’s, which placed its Aa1 sovereign rating on review for possible downgrade…. [Read more]
The outlook for the eurozone is looking steadily worse. Key European economies have thus far failed to capitalise on the bounce in headline growth seen in the US and emerging markets. Concomitantly, a brewing sovereign crisis in Greece has highlighted serious problems of overleverage in Portugal, Spain and Italy. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor… [Read more]
On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper, Head of Europe Analysis Justin Patrie and Senior Europe Analyst Bruce Jeffery discuss European investment strategy on the back of the Greek fiscal crisis and news of an EU support package for Athens. In addition to providing analysis on the most recent market developments in… [Read more]
Sovereign risk roared back on to the agenda this week after Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Greece’s sovereign issuer default rating to ‘BBB+’ on December 9. We discuss the tactical market implications for the eurozone and the strategic risks posed by further downgrades in the region going forward.
It’s hard to believe how conditions have changed CEE, you’re acting a little bit deranged. Where once there were dreams of economic convergence We now have nightmares, of defaults and divergence. As growth turns to slowdown, and slowdown to recession I hesitate to look forward, for the likely depression. Ok, enough armchair poetry. Let’s get… [Read more]
Over the past several months, there has been a clear disconnect between credit default swap (CDS) markets and sovereign ratings in the emerging Europe region. While CDS spreads across the board have spiked to record highs, in some cases beyond 1,000 basis points (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Latvia), the downgrades from the ratings agencies have been… [Read more]
