Together with my colleagues at Business Monitor International, I have just put the finishing touches to a report titled Britain On The Brink: UK Economy Sliding Out Of The Global Premier League. Our forecasts are amongst the most bearish yet published: • Britain will suffer a far deeper recession than either the UK Treasury or… [Read more]

I see several signs that risk appetite is returning to the markets, which could mean we are in for a rally in the coming weeks and months. Key barometers such as sterling-yen (in fact, many yen cross rates), the VIX index, the Baltic Dry index, and Treasuries are showing signs of reversal. On a relative… [Read more]

As the charts below show, the JAMAICAN DOLLAR IS IN FREEFALL versus the US dollar. As the charts below also show, it’s just hit a NEW HIGH AGAINST STERLING. I’m no maths genius, but to me this suggests that the UK is in serious, serious trouble. Now I don’t want to be harsh to Jamaica,… [Read more]

Whichever way you cut it, the British pound sterling certainly had a rough 2008. Since the start of last year, the unit has sunk 32% against the euro and came very close to hitting parity with the single currency for the first time ever. Most of this decline occurred after I flagged the prospect in… [Read more]

For someone who has not only lived but traded through previous sterling crises, most notably the one in September 1992 involving a certain Mr Lamont – one of yours truly’s most successful ever trading months – the current depreciation of the Great British pound is reminiscent of old-fashioned runs on the currency. Do you remember… [Read more]

At the moment, the view of financial stocks is playing out. Remember the monthly chart we ran recently of AIG, which we said looked ‘awful’. Yesterday the price dropped to below US$24.00, despite the bounce in the Dow Jones index. This is not a good sign, and we continue to see the stock falling to… [Read more]