It’s hard not to conclude that China’s economy is showing the hallmarks of a massive bubble, which, if burst, could lead to painful readjustments at a later date. The root of this bubble is all the money that is being pumped into the economy to boost economic growth. It seems that the mantra of Chinese… [Read more]

My colleagues and I at Business Monitor International (BMI) frequently initiate or exit positions in our in-house mock portfolio, a practice which regular readers of our online service and weekly Emerging Markets Monitor magazine will be familiar with. Today, I shed some light on BMI’s Africa portfolio. Given the current correction in global stock markets… [Read more]

Further to my musings on whether ‘decoupling’ is fact or fiction, I’d like to briefly point out two of the curiosities of the current global equity rally. The first curiosity is how out of touch the rally seems to be with the fundamentals. My overall view is that this rally is simply a correction in… [Read more]

Now that Sri Lanka’s civil war is over and the Tamil Tigers’ leaders have been eliminated, President Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa will have to turn his attention to winning the peace. This may actually be harder than winning the war. For a start, the government will need to reintegrate the Tamil minority – of which more… [Read more]

Is China entering a time of troubles? Yesterday’s 0.27% interest rate cut – the first in six years – and today’s 4.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index to a 20-month low of 1,987 may suggest so. The stock market is now down 68% from its peak in October 2007, and I do not preclude… [Read more]