The Q211 GDP data released recently by Statistics South Africa has confirmed many of my suspicions about the state of the South African economy. The recovery is losing momentum and moreover, it is uneven with the supply side in the doldrums while the demand side continues to post robust growth. The economy as a whole… [Read more]
Sharp exchange rate depreciation and rising inflationary pressures have been exacerbated by an unpredictable and often contradictory monetary policy by the Central Bank of Kenya. Can recent – admittedly half-hearted – measures to tighten policy prevent further shilling depreciation and reverse the inflationary trend? This week Mark Schaltuper speaks to Sub-Saharan Africa analyst, Matt Searle,… [Read more]
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often regarded as having exciting potential for the Islamic finance market. The region is home to more than 250mn Muslims (over 15% of the world’s Muslim population) and the youthful demographics and under-banked nature of many countries add to the attractiveness. Aside from the obvious religious aspects (ie compliance with shari’a… [Read more]
When it comes to Sub-Saharan African markets, I favour equities as an asset class. Of course, selectivity is key: I prefer Nigerian, Ghanaian and Zambian stocks. In Nigeria’s case, I think improved investor confidence following the election will drive the market higher as participants reduce the political risk premium and focus on the attractive macroeconomic… [Read more]
In light of current unrest in Egypt, we turn our attention southwards to Sub-Saharan Africa, where political risk is rising in Cote d’Ivoire following last year’s disputed election, and in Uganda and Nigeria ahead of elections in February and April, respectively. Meanwhile, higher inflation threatens to bring instability to other countries in the region. BMI’s… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we are joined by Lisa Lewin, Head of Africa Analysis, to hear about her ‘on the ground’ impressions after returning from a trip to Kenya. A burgeoning middle class and growing trade integration among East African nations suggest that several sectors stand to benefit from the highly attractive economic… [Read more]
My colleagues at BMI inform me that Liberia is ‘one to watch’ in Sub-Saharan Africa. It has bright economic prospects, thanks to sound macroeconomic policy, burgeoning investment in the mining sector and forthcoming debt relief. The Liberian economy demonstrated resilience amid the global recession, boding well for its future prospects. BMI estimates that real GDP… [Read more]
