While investors’ attentions are naturally focused on the meltdown in global financial markets, there are several other noteworthy developments taking place around the world that could add to the sense of global risks. The following are in no particular order: Tensions are once again rising on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is conducting military exercises,… [Read more]
Syrian President Bashar Assad is facing the biggest challenge to his 11-year rule, with mass protests taking place across the country. The government has cracked down violently, but this has failed to restore stability. My colleagues and I now see a growing possibility that the Assad regime will eventually collapse under the strain, possibly resulting… [Read more]
I’ve just come back from visiting Syria. The country is certainly on the tourist map these days judging by the busloads of European visitors. And economically, Syria has strong prospects: BMI is forecasting real GDP growth in the 3.5-5.0% range over the coming five years. Politically, however, I don’t see much prospect of change in… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Middle East Analysis Elizabeth Martins and Middle East Analyst Andrew Fargus discuss rising political risks in Iran concerning the nuclear situation. With diplomatic tensions escalating, Fargus assesses the implications of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, and discusses the latter’s retaliatory options. At home, the Iranian… [Read more]
