At a time when the global financial crisis has brought the majority of economies around the world to their knees, Paul Collier’s The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It reminds us that for a significant portion of the world’s population, the events of the ongoing ‘Great Recession’ are passing by like a mouse on the streets of Pamplona. Indeed, while economic activity grinds to a halt in emerging markets across the globe, for the ‘Bottom Billion’ (that is, the sixth of the world’s population that live in the least developed states in the world), a sharp slowdown in growth would be nearly impossible, for such a scenario would surely imply previous forward momentum. Although many once-poor nations have successfully harnessed the power of the global economy to lift their citizens out of poverty, the countries at the bottom of the development ladder remain stuck, having fallen into one of the four ‘traps’ which Collier has identified as an invariable straightjacket on growth.

Whether it’s recurring conflict, dependence on the export of primary commodities, chronic bad governance or landlocked geography with bad neighbours, these states have fallen into a vicious cycle whereby the prospects for long-term growth remain bleak. To be sure, Collier makes clear from the outset his opposition to single-factor theories regarding development, which invariably lead into his relatively unique ‘tools’ to help solve the problems these countries face.

One such solution would encompass the development of preferential trading agreements for the Bottom Billion (the author identifies 58 countries as falling into this category, the majority of which are in Africa) which would help protect exporters in these economies from their Asian competitors. Indeed, as a product of the ‘economies of agglomeration’ (i.e. the benefits which accrue to similar businesses when they locate in proximity to one another), arguments in favour of universally lowering global trade barriers as one response to the development challenge suddenly seem to stand on less firm ground.

While Collier should be given credit for pushing the debate over long-term development in these economies beyond the rather tragic “Where do you stand on aid? Yay or Nay?” backdrop, I can’t help but wonder if his most controversial proposals were not thought up amidst a naive surge of optimism at a Bono-headlining charity event. Surely the realists among us look at increasing competition among emerging powers for scarce resources and influence around the globe as an immediate check on his proposal to use military intervention as one tool to stop a state from falling into the ‘conflict trap’.

Indeed, with Russia and China increasingly seeking out new investment opportunities in Africa, achieving a broad consensus on when and where foreign militaries could intervene in another state’s internal affairs without provoking a Great Power conflict appears unlikely to say the least. Accordingly, at times it appears Collier’s goals would entail less a change to global development policy than it would an end to the self-serving interests of the external powers which have too often acted with little regard for the long-term development of these states. But must a shift in the latter not precipitate a fundamental change in the former?

For BMI’s purposes, namely the field of country risk analysis, Collier`s book is particularly pertinent. Indeed, reading his insights on the ‘resource trap’, I couldn’t help but think about the long-term prospects for Mongolia, which recently signed a landmark and long-awaited mining agreement over the development of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in the Gobi desert. The fact that the author`s research indicates that resource-rich democracies tend to grow at a slower pace than their authoritarian counterparts is of particular concern (governments facing electoral competition tend to spend money on social handouts and vote-buying as opposed to long-term investment projects), particularly given the Great Hural (parliament)`s status as one of the only functioning democratic institutions in Eurasia.

While The Bottom Billion comes in at under 200 pages, the book’s scope and ambition is far greater, with an ‘Agenda for Action’ final chapter underscoring Collier’s desire to see his research transformed into actual policy changes on the ground. Although Collier’s previous research upon which The Bottom Billion is based is certainly immense, and successfully underpins the majority of his arguments for how these states continue to fall behind amidst a general environment of global development success, the book’s true strength is its ability to convey such information in an enjoyable and highly readable manner to a wide audience.

Certainly, his five years at the helm of the Development Research Group at the World Bank have provided a sufficient pool of anecdotes which help make a serious topic more entertaining. Indeed, a recollection of when the author posed the question, “What country do you wish to be like in 20 years time?” to the government of the Central African Republic, and they replied, “Burkina Faso”, was both slightly endearing, while simultaneously helping to ground his argument for setting realistic development goals. In the end, there is little I can say about The Bottom Billion which hasn`t already been down on record, except simply to join the large chorus of voices recommending you to pick it up and give it a read.