Massive capital inflows across South America raise the spectre that authorities throughout the region are about to impose capital controls. Support for exporters appears to be the main reason for such intervention, but fears over a rapid withdrawal of ‘hot money’ in the event of another ‘double-dip’ also appear to be a factor.

Risk Watchdog believes [Read more...]

Tensions have been rising in the South China Sea of late, and these are threatening to put strains on China’s relations with South East Asia and the US.
Essentially, China has reiterated its long-standing claims over the whole of the South China Sea, including the Spratly and Paracel islands. Unsurprisingly, this sovereignty assertion is disputed by [Read more...]

Through the second quarter of 2010, many analysts noted a divergence between seemingly positive microeconomic data and a macroeconomic outlook which was flagging a renewed downturn in growth. A seemingly strong recovery in container shipping in particular augured well for global demand and trade. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Shipping and [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [9:40m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

After slumping by 12% in 2009, the largest contraction of the post-war period, global trade volumes have steadily rebounded in the first half of 2010. Yet, just as the global economic downturn laid bare the inherent chinks in the armour in the world’s financial system, the upturn is exposing a fundamental weakness in another vital [Read more...]

China’s exports came in at US$94.5bn in February, up 45.6% y-o-y and higher than consensus estimates. The data shows a continued outperformance of exports to emerging markets relative to developed markets, with exports to emerging markets such as India (up 54%), and Brazil (up 92%) showing the most impressive gains.

On the imports side of the [Read more...]

When global stock markets were rising in 2009, and government co-operation was thought to have saved the world from economic catastrophe, the continued deterioration of trade ties between the US and China went largely unnoticed. However, rising protectionism is now here, and I think this issue will rise in significance over the coming months.

Risk Watchdog is not shy about promoting his views to anyone who will listen. Yesterday, I had the opportunity yesterday to talk to a group of potential exporters to East Africa at an event organised by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry and hosted by Barclays, about why I and my colleagues at Business [Read more...]