After slumping by 12% in 2009, the largest contraction of the post-war period, global trade volumes have steadily rebounded in the first half of 2010. Yet, just as the global economic downturn laid bare the inherent chinks in the armour in the world’s financial system, the upturn is exposing a fundamental weakness in another vital… [Read more]
China’s exports came in at US$94.5bn in February, up 45.6% y-o-y and higher than consensus estimates. The data shows a continued outperformance of exports to emerging markets relative to developed markets, with exports to emerging markets such as India (up 54%), and Brazil (up 92%) showing the most impressive gains. On the imports side of… [Read more]
When global stock markets were rising in 2009, and government co-operation was thought to have saved the world from economic catastrophe, the continued deterioration of trade ties between the US and China went largely unnoticed. However, rising protectionism is now here, and I think this issue will rise in significance over the coming months. After… [Read more]
Risk Watchdog is not shy about promoting his views to anyone who will listen. Yesterday, I had the opportunity yesterday to talk to a group of potential exporters to East Africa at an event organised by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry and hosted by Barclays, about why I and my colleagues at Business… [Read more]
US President Barack Obama, en route to ‘Asia’ (I use the speech marks, because Asia is so diverse and it is inaccurate to consider it a single entity), has no shortage of issues to deal with when he gets there. There seems to be a general feeling that US influence in Asia is on the… [Read more]
Global politics and commerce have long been centred on major basins, starting with the Mediterranean, then shifting to the Atlantic and later the Pacific oceans. In recent years, the Indian Ocean has emerged as the focus of a new geopolitical competition and a realm for promoting ‘South-South’ trade and investment, especially between China-India and Africa…. [Read more]
Risk watchdog has found at least one electoral pledge that President Obama appears to have followed through on since coming to power – his promise to renegotiate the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to help US workers. Obama is not the first G20 leader to adopt protectionist measures in recent months,… [Read more]