As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]
The Nabucco pipeline project, which has long been backed by the EU to reduce the continent’s dependency on Russian gas, has been made redundant by the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline project. The latter is a joint venture (JV) between Azerbaijan’s state oil company Socar and Turkey’s Botas pipeline corporation, and their planned pipeline will carry natural… [Read more]
The answer to this question is, probably not. Turkey is quite different from Iran in its modern history, domestic political system, economic structure, society, and foreign policy. Nevertheless, Turkey’s growing assertiveness in the Middle East, its slow drift away from the West in favour of closer relations with Russia and China, and its willingness to… [Read more]
Following the release of two recent reports on Business Monitor Online, on the geopolitical implications of the souring diplomatic relationship between Turkey and Israel, Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk and Financial Markets hosts a panel of Europe, Middle East and North Africa analysts, as well as Business Monitor’s Head of Political Risk Analysis,… [Read more]
The Turkey-Israel alliance, until recently one of the pillars of Eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern geopolitics, is under strain like never before. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to send warships to accompany humanitarian aid vessels aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip. This raises the spectre of a tense stand-off… [Read more]
The ongoing sovereign debt crises in the eurozone will have several important political and geopolitical consequences, as I explain in a feature in Business Monitor Online this week. Europe faces its biggest crisis since Yugoslavia’s collapse. Europe seldom has the unity and purpose to tackle major crises. The eurozone was probably too big to begin… [Read more]
The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and the spike in oil prices on the back of the political crises in the Middle East and North Africa. BMI’s core global economic scenario is for steady growth for the remainder of the year and into 2012,… [Read more]
