My colleagues at Business Monitor International tell me that oil production will be a defining feature of the Ghanaian growth story over the medium-to-long term. In fact, they forecast that over the coming years, growth will be in the double digits and the deficits on the current account and fiscal account will be wiped out. Sounds pretty impressive. But flicking through BMI’s Q210 Business Forecast Report for Ghana, I see that there are two key question marks, each with implications for the macroeconomy: when will oil production begin, and how much oil will be produced? There is some doubt over the start-up date, with some people expecting things to kick off in late 2010, while other folk reckon early 2011 is more realistic. As for production levels, everyone seems to be focusing on the Jubilee oilfield, but recent discoveries at the nearby Tweneboa oilfield could mean that total output comes in far higher than most current projections.

Given the uncertainty over both the oil start-up date, and production levels over the long term, and of course oil prices, BMI presents three scenarios for oil-led growth in their quarterly report, and I have reproduced the tables here. It is certainly food for thought – check out the implications for growth, the current account, the fiscal account and the cedi.

Core scenario: oil production begins in early 2011; Jubilee oilfield only

Best-case scenario: early start for oil production; Tweneboa output matches Jubilee

Worst-case scenario: Jubilee disappoints; Tweneboa is neglected