Political and economic upheaval is a regular occurrence around the world, but what makes the recent unrest in Egypt so worthy of attention is the country’s overwhelming geopolitical importance in the world. Quite simply, my colleagues and I view Egypt as a ‘pivotal state’. There is no official definition of the term ‘pivotal state’ (although… [Read more]
Apologies if this blog post title reminded you of an obscure 1986 Tommy Lee Jones film featuring a sleek black car with a red stripe, Black Moon Rising. For some years now, the Greater Black Sea region has been attracting the interest of the Great Powers, and I expect it to rise further in prominence… [Read more]
With risk appetite still on and markets racing ahead, I have been seeking out some of the more unconventional, ‘frontier’ plays. These are not for the faint-hearted but I like the look of several sovereign bonds – Ghana’s US$ 2017 global bond, Republic of Congo’s US$ 2029 global bond and Ukraine’s US$ 2013 global bond…. [Read more]
Moldova is in the midst of yet another political crisis. By this, I actually mean that the country has entered a new phase of a pre-existing crisis – a crisis that yields valuable lessons on the broader significance of political institutions to a country’s risk profile. Fortunately, this new scene in the ongoing drama has… [Read more]
In Business Monitor International’s second weekly podcast Mark Schaltuper speaks to Justin Patrie about the economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe. How will the region perform compared to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998?
As the macroeconomic and financial market maelstrom continues to engulf the Emerging Europe region, one of the questions I’m asked most is the prospects for sovereign defaults in 2009. With benchmark government bonds and CDS spreads across the region continuing to widen towards record levels, the fears of the dreaded ‘D’ word seem to increase… [Read more]
It’s hard to believe how conditions have changed CEE, you’re acting a little bit deranged. Where once there were dreams of economic convergence We now have nightmares, of defaults and divergence. As growth turns to slowdown, and slowdown to recession I hesitate to look forward, for the likely depression. Ok, enough armchair poetry. Let’s get… [Read more]
