I love January. While most of my colleagues sit around the office complaining about the weather and the extra pounds they’ve put on over the holidays, I sit at my desk staring at the computer screen with a big grin on my face. What’s not to love? In addition to the underlying feelings of rebirth… [Read more]

The economic data from Russia continues to get worse, confirming my view that the country is headed straight for a recession in 2009. The latest comes from state-owned bank VTB, which released its Purchasing Manager’s Index-based GDP indicator on January 7. The reading implied that the Russian economy is already contracting, having collapsed to its… [Read more]

If you think emerging Europe currencies have run their course to the downside, take another look at the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). This being the only European sub-region dominated by dollar pegs, monetary authorities for the most part have only recently succumbed to mounting fundamental pressures. While the Ukrainian hryvnia, Russian rouble and Georgian… [Read more]

At a recent eastern European banking sector conference, I was struck by the lack of doom and gloom among many of the fellow delegates. Yes, there was expressed concern about falling share prices and declining asset growth, but there was also an almost mantra-like quality about the way I was repeatedly told: ‘the fundamentals are… [Read more]