Last Friday’s November nonfarm payrolls release was far more positive than the market - or I - expected. The headline numbers portrayed a significant improvement in the labour market situation, or, at least, a decline in the pace of deterioration. The unemployment rate was down from 10.2% in October to 10.0% in November, and nonfarm [Read more...]

Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia.

According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark [Read more...]

With Halloween around the corner, we ask BMI’s Global Economic Strategist, Tim Cooper, if the latest Q3 GDP reading in the US is a ‘Trick’ or a ‘Treat’. For now, markets appear to be thinking the latter.

 

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With the economic cycle having hit bottom and turning, thanks in no small part to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, attention is now turning to when that stimulus is likely to be withdrawn. For me, the likelihood is that tighter policy is going to be put off as long as possible by the authorities in [Read more...]

With the US economy emerging out of recession, a big question will be what happens to the labour market. The US continues to record job losses every month, despite signs that real GDP is returning to positive growth, and while unemployment tends to be a lagging indicator, BMI’s Tim Cooper notes that underlying structural shifts [Read more...]

 

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Happy Labor Day! Well, it may be a happy Labor Day for US residents who are employed in well-remunerated, full-time, enjoyable jobs. Just as I thought – I don’t see many hands going up. And judging from the non-farm payrolls data released last Friday, much of the workforce has little to be cheerful about. In [Read more...]

BMI Global Economist, Tim Cooper, shares his views on what the latest slowdown in job losses means for the US economy and financial markets.

 

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