The latest US (un) employment figures were really bad, actually. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2% in June from 9.1% in May, while employees on nonfarm payrolls increased by only 18,000 (versus the consensus estimate of 100,000+). I never read too much into a single payroll report, but this one is quite bad. Also, the… [Read more]
The last few weeks have certainly been good to the Spanish on the football pitch and the tennis court. But as the sporting hangover begins to wear off, all eyes will return to the ailing economy. Unlike Greece, Spain has not come to the forefront of investor concerns in recent months because of its sovereign… [Read more]
Financial markets seem to have a very short memory span when it comes to aligning with macroeconomic fundamentals these days. Though the release of housing sales numbers in the US today and the short-lived euphoria of China’s loosening of its exchange rate regime at the start of the week seem to have shaken up equities… [Read more]
The bounce is on in the United States, with real GDP growth forecast to surge to 2.8% in 2010. And yet, the spike in headline growth will not translate into much better job conditions nor re-inflation of prices in the crucial real estate market. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper discusses… [Read more]
Last Friday’s November nonfarm payrolls release was far more positive than the market – or I – expected. The headline numbers portrayed a significant improvement in the labour market situation, or, at least, a decline in the pace of deterioration. The unemployment rate was down from 10.2% in October to 10.0% in November, and nonfarm… [Read more]
Few countries have been as badly hit by the global downturn as Latvia. According to a flash estimate released by the statistical office, the Latvian economy plunged by 18.4% y-o-y during the third quarter, which although below the consensus contraction of 19-20%, was nonetheless a horrific rate of decline. Indeed, this would mark the third… [Read more]
With Halloween around the corner, we ask BMI’s Global Economic Strategist, Tim Cooper, if the latest Q3 GDP reading in the US is a ‘Trick’ or a ‘Treat’. For now, markets appear to be thinking the latter.
