The death of al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden in the early hours of May 2, 2011, has several noteworthy implications worldwide. The US can claim a very important symbolic victory in the ‘War on Terror’ (admittedly a phrase seldom used these days). Osama Bin Laden shot to international prominence in August 1998, when he was… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include:… [Read more]
Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the… [Read more]
Risk watchdog had been bullish towards the agricultural complex for some time, but last week’s barrage of data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has proved a bit of a game changer. Specifically, while still optimistic on the outlook for soft commodities such as coffee, cocoa and sugar, me and my colleagues here at… [Read more]
One of the things I’ve been wracking my brain with this week is the political outlook for the US in the 2010s. Measuring change is difficult, because everyone has a different perception of the status quo and the past. Some people think 2010 is radically different from 2000; others less so. Nonetheless, it is still… [Read more]
Gold prices have made significant ground in recent trading, prompting a surge of interest in the precious metal. Indeed, speculative interest in gold has risen to a 16-year high in recent days and the technical picture remains encouraging. Spot gold has broken above resistance around the US$990.00/oz level, and crucially, is currently sitting pretty above… [Read more]
