An Assessment Of Political Risks There is a widespread belief that the eurozone will survive, because “there’s no way that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and other European leaders will let 60 years of European integration efforts collapse during their watch”. These leaders will take decisive action at the last minute to… [Read more]

The outbreak of large-scale anti-government protests across Egypt in late November underscores the volatility inherent in the country’s now 10-month old democratic transition. In our blogpost of February 14, we cautioned that former president Hosni Muabrak’s resignation represented only the end of the beginning of the transition. We also warned that any foot-dragging by the… [Read more]

Syrian President Bashar Assad is facing the biggest challenge to his 11-year rule, with mass protests taking place across the country. The government has cracked down violently, but this has failed to restore stability. My colleagues and I now see a growing possibility that the Assad regime will eventually collapse under the strain, possibly resulting… [Read more]

As the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) experiences its biggest shake-up in at least a generation, Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a special report, MENA Crisis: The Key Risk To Global Recovery And Stability. The report analyses the following topics: The long-term consequences of upheaval for the Middle East and North Africa… [Read more]

With Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s position looking increasingly untenable, and Bahrain rocked by unrest, so soon after popular protests toppled the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been shaken like never before. Crucially, the uprisings have also overthrown the conventional wisdom. Until recently, it was generally assumed… [Read more]

Bahrain is the only Gulf Arab state to have witnessed large-scale public unrest since popular uprisings toppled the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents in recent weeks. As of Friday, 18 February, the Kingdom was bracing for more protests following the security forces’ dispersal of demonstrators in the capital Manama’s Pearl Square the previous day. The Bahraini… [Read more]

Egypt is entering a pivotal time in its modern history, as my colleagues and I explain today in Business Monitor Online. Popular protests against President Hosni Mubarak, inspired by those in Tunisia, are a major risk to his regime. However, even if the protests fail to dislodge Mubarak now, his advanced age (82) would appear… [Read more]