Despite signs that a last-minute agreement on raising the US debt ceiling will be reached before today’s deadline, Risk Watchdog remains neutral commodity markets. This is due to the view that other macro headwinds will keep commodity prices in check over H211. In this environment, gold should continue outperforming. Although a short-term rally is possible… [Read more]
Although market developments are moving quickly, I am going reiterate that the Watchdogs fundamental outlook for the second half of 2008 is playing out. The core scenario envisaged the collapse of a major US financial institution in H208. If you count Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in that category (or, for that matter, IndyMac, which… [Read more]
The timing, as ever, is a little tricky, but at some point during the second half of the year, commodity markets are going to turn lower, and when they do, the move is going to be hard and fast. At the moment, though, the bubble is still forming. Our view of the world starts with… [Read more]