When global stock markets were rising in 2009, and government co-operation was thought to have saved the world from economic catastrophe, the continued deterioration of trade ties between the US and China went largely unnoticed. However, rising protectionism is now here, and I think this issue will rise in significance over the coming months.

Few people would dispute that the relationship between the US and China is the most important in the world, so much so that the term ‘Chimerica’ is used often nowadays to refer to the two countries as a single economy. Both sides generally benefit, if you overlook the huge US trade deficit with China, and [Read more...]

There are two key aspects to President Obama’s banking reform:

1) It attempts to address the ‘too big to fail’ debate: Obama wants to place size limits on banks (although it is still unclear what these are). This should create a wave of divestments and carve-outs in the banking industry.

2) To break up [Read more...]

On this week’s podcast, we interview Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper, who gives his analysis on the global outlook for 2010. Highlighted themes include relative performance of emerging markets versus developed economies, the inflation outlook, potential for ‘double dips’ in the US and China, asset allocation strategies and the risks to recovery.

 

 Standard Podcast [11:36m]
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Last Friday’s November nonfarm payrolls release was far more positive than the market - or I - expected. The headline numbers portrayed a significant improvement in the labour market situation, or, at least, a decline in the pace of deterioration. The unemployment rate was down from 10.2% in October to 10.0% in November, and nonfarm [Read more...]

Myanmar (Burma) is a country that deserves more attention.

In case you missed it, the US is currently pursuing a diplomatic outreach to Myanmar’s ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) – the military junta headed by Senior General Than Shwe. US State Department officials have just returned from what was the highest-ranking American [Read more...]

Last week my colleagues at Business Monitor and I took off our bullish key market view of the Brazilian Bovespa index, following gains of around 13.8%. The monthly chart, which was run in the Latin America section of Business Monitor Online, highlights the strong potential of a major reversal. The accompanying chart below is the [Read more...]