In Business Monitor Online today, we publish a detailed preview of the US 2012 presidential and congressional elections. Despite the United States’ economic woes, Barack Obama still looks well positioned to win re-election in 2012. Unsurprisingly, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president. In many ways, the… [Read more]
As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]
As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]
Towards the end of 2010 our global team identified nine key global themes for 2011, ranging from an intensification of the eurozone debt crisis to ‘all eyes on China’. With 2011 now coming to a close, Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Country Risk is joined by Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper to see how… [Read more]
One of the big themes my colleagues and I have flagged up since late 2007 is the eventual rebalancing of the United States’ external accounts. There are several reasons – both domestic and external – why we believe the US current account deficit will continue to narrow over the coming years. We list these below,… [Read more]
As the US gears up for general elections in 2012, there is a widespread perception that the country’s economic weakness since 2008, the rise of China, the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, have all eroded American global hegemony. Although the US’ ability and… [Read more]
It is hard to be upbeat towards Western economies right now, with so much bad data coming out of the US, and the eurozone struggling to hold itself together. Indeed, people could be forgiven for thinking that the West is down and out. However, this could be premature. One of the charts that has intrigued… [Read more]
