Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast [Read more...]

On a nonfarm payrolls day, and with equities looking awful on a long-term basis but well oversold on a short-term basis, Risk Watchdog is looking to the bond market for medium-term clues. Yields in the US and Germany have come down significantly over recent weeks, particularly at the long end. The immediate reason for this [Read more...]

Rumours are still swirling on the subject of the Dubai World (DW) restructuring, and I am not yet convinced that the time to initiate a long-term bullish position on Dubai stocks has come, in spite of the recent rally. I have heard various theories on DW, and I am inclined to the optimistic side: the [Read more...]

Regular readers of RiskWatchdog will recall that back in July, I flagged up the upside potential of several sub-Saharan African currencies. At that time, the units looked well-positioned to appreciate, thanks to rising global risk appetite, bullish technical patterns and the high yields on offer. I am pleased to say that this view has played [Read more...]

Business Monitor’s Emerging Europe team has been cautious regional financial markets over the past several weeks, holding a neutral position across asset classes in the company’s in-house market portfolio since June 12. The long equity positions the team had held through the end of March to early June continue to look shaky amid technical signs [Read more...]