Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]
Chinese companies are to continue seeking iron ore, copper, and bauxite projects overseas as the country has a significant supply deficit in these metals. Regarding iron ore, China accounts for 14.9% of global production but consumes over 40% of the world’s steel output. This differential is replicated in copper and bauxite, and China is thus… [Read more]
Zambia held its general elections on September 20 2011, in which opposition candidate Michael Sata, from the Patriotic Front political party, emerged victorious. Most analysts were expecting a closely fought battle, but had tipped incumbent President Rupiah Banda to retain his position. Sata’s win poses important questions for Zambia, since his long political career has… [Read more]
I’ve long highlighted the growth potential in Zambia, which has benefitted from high prices for its key exports, an improving business environment, and strong investor sentiment, leading to a surge of FDI at the end of 2010 and into 2011. Reflecting this optimism, BMI’s Sub-Saharan Africa team officially entered a bullish key market view on… [Read more]
BMI’s Africa team is highly optimistic about the Zambian economy, and we believe that GDP growth is likely to exceed 7% in 2011. In a recently published article on Business Monitor Online, we specify three key drivers for growth in the near future: · A good and improving business environment. Zambia is a top-ten reformer… [Read more]
Regular readers of RiskWatchdog will recall that back in July, I flagged up the upside potential of several sub-Saharan African currencies. At that time, the units looked well-positioned to appreciate, thanks to rising global risk appetite, bullish technical patterns and the high yields on offer. I am pleased to say that this view has played… [Read more]