Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]
I recently visited Zimbabwe, and essentially concluded that the economy is recovering. Traffic in Harare is noticeably busier, even when compared to my last visit in October 2010. Consumers are buying from supermarkets, the shelves of which are stocked with (mainly imported) goods which had been conspicuous by their absence for much of the last… [Read more]
The decision taken by President Hugo Chávez’s administration to suspend trading in Venezuela’s black market ‘parallel’ rate marks a step closer to Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and domestic economic ruin. To-date the government has avoided paying the cost of its rampant spending spree and erosion of productive capacity thanks to robust global oil prices, but even without… [Read more]
The Zimbabwean Industrial Index could be one to watch over the next few months after returning about 50% in 2009. If we look at a chart of the performance last year, it is quite plain to see that the index was a bit of slave to politics. Each time there was a positive development the… [Read more]
Is there any country in the world that is going to do better in 2009 than in 2008, as measured by real GDP growth? I think so. In fact, I think there’s a country that could have its strongest growth number in a decade, despite the global economic crisis. It’s called Zimbabwe. Granted, the bar… [Read more]
As a foreign investor, you couldn’t have done much worse than investing in the Nigerian stock market in 2009 (OK, you could have bought Zimbabwe dollars). With the Lagos All-Share Index down 27.5% since January 1, it’s the worst performing equity index in the world so far this year. Add to that a 9.2% drop… [Read more]
Sure, Zimbabwe’s inflation has recently been estimated at 89.7 sextillion (that’s a one with 21 zeroes after it) percent, but given plummeting commodities and the global recession, surely inflation is going to turn the corner in the rest of Africa. After all, yours truly recently pointed out that deflation, rather than inflation, may now be… [Read more]